Jiří Filip Press Release: Mamiriro akaipisisa anogoneka - kurwisa kweRussia kuUkraine - kuri kuitika. Tinoshora hutsinye uhwu uye mupepa rino tinoedza kuongorora migumisiro yehupfumi uye kukanganisa pamisika yemari.
Mutengo wemafuta wakadarika $100 padhiramu
Russia mutambi akakosha mumusika wemagetsi emagetsi. Zvinonyanya kukosha kuEurope. Mamiriro emafuta chiratidzo chakanaka chekunetsana kwazvino. Mutengo wacho wakapfuura mwero we $ 100 pabhodhoro kekutanga kubva muna 2014. Russia inotumira kunze kwenyika anenge mamiriyoni mashanu emafuta pazuva. Izvi zvingangoita 5% yezvinodiwa pasi rose. IEuropean Union inotenga kunze kwenyika inenge hafu yevhoriyamu iyi. Kana Madokero akafunga kugura Russia kubva kuSWIFT yepasirese yekubhadhara system, kutengeswa kweRussia kune EU kunogona kumiswa. Muchiitiko chechiitiko ichi, tinotarisira kuwedzera kwemutengo wemafuta ne $ 5-20 pabhari. Mune maonero edu, premium yengozi yehondo pamutengo wezvino wemafuta inosvika $ 30-15 pabhari.
Europe ndiyo inonyanya kutenga oiri yeRussia kunze kwenyika. Kunobva: Bloomberg, XTB Tsvagiridzo
Rally pagoridhe uye palladium
Iko kukakavara ndiyo nheyo huru yekukura kwemutengo wegoridhe mumisika yemari. Hakasi kekutanga kuti goridhe iratidze basa rayo senzvimbo yakachengeteka munguva dzemhirizhonga yezvematongerwo enyika. Mutengo weaundi yegoridhe wakwira ne3% nhasi uye wave kuda kusvika $1, ingangoita $970 pazasi penguva yese yakakwirira.
Russia ndiyo inogadzira palladium - simbi yakakosha kune chikamu chemotokari. Kunobva: Bloomberg, XTB Tsvagiridzo
Russia ndiyo yakakosha mugadziri wepalladium. Iyo isimbi yakakosha yekugadzirwa kwecatalytic converter yechikamu chemotokari. Palladium mitengo yakakwira ingangoita 8% nhasi.
Kutya kunoreva kutengesa mumisika
Misika yepasi rose iri kutora chikamu chayo chikuru kubva pakutanga kwe 2020. Kusava nechokwadi ikozvino ndiyo inonyanya kukosha mutyairi wemisika yepasi rose sezvo vatengesi vasingazivi zvichazotevera. Iko kururamisa muNasdaq-100 ramangwana rakadzika nhasi, kupfuura 20%. Tekinoroji mastock saka akazviwana ari mumusika wemapere. Zvisinei, chikamu chikuru chekuderera uku kwakakonzerwa netarisiro yekukurumidza muFed's monetary policy tightening. Remangwana reGerman DAX radonha rakatenderedza 15% kubva pakati paNdira uye vari kutengeserana pedyo nepre-denda rakakwirira.
Iyo DE30 iri kutengesa pedyo ne-pre-denda highs. Kunobva: xStation5
Bhizinesi muUkraine riri mungozi
Izvo hazvifanirwe kushamisa kuti makambani eRussia nemakambani ane inorema kuratidzwa kumusika weRussia akatora yakanyanya kurova. Indekisi huru yeRussia RTS yakaderera kupfuura 60% kubva pakakwirira yakasvika muna Gumiguru 2021. Yakatengesa muchidimbu pasi pe2020 yakaderera nhasi! Polymetal International ikambani inofanirwa kucherechedzwa, ine zvikamu zvinodarika makumi matatu kubva muzana paLondon Stock Exchange sezvo musika uchitya kuti zvirango zvichawira kambani yeBritish-Russian. Renault inokanganiswa zvakare sezvo Russia iri yechipiri musika mukuru wekambani. Mabhangi ane kuratidzwa kunorema kuRussia - UniCredit uye Societe Generale - zvakare ari pasi zvakanyanya.
Kuwedzera inflation
Kubva pakuona kwehupfumi, mamiriro acho akajeka - kurwisana kwemauto kuchava chikonzero chekutsvaga kwekuwedzera kwemari. Mitengo yezvinhu zvinenge zvese zviri kukwira, zvikuru zvemagetsi. Nekudaro, kana iri nyaya yemisika yezvigadzirwa, zvakawanda zvinoenderana nekuti iko kukakavara kunobata sei zvinhu. Zvakakosha kucherechedza kuti cheni dzepasi rose dzevatengi-dzekutengesa hadzisati dzapora kubva padenda. Zvino chimwe chinhu chakaipa chinooneka. Zvinoenderana neiyo New York Fed index, cheni dzepasirese dzekugovera ndidzo dzakanyanya kunetseka munhoroondo.
Central bankers' bluff
Kuvhunduka mushure mekukanganisa kweCovid-19 kwakararama kwenguva pfupi, nekuda kwerutsigiro rwakakura rwemabhanga epakati. Zvisinei, chiito chakadaro iye zvino hachibviri. Nekuda kwekuti kukonana kuri kukwira kwemitengo uye kune chekuita nekupa uye kutakura zvinhu pane kudiwa, inflation inova dambudziko rakatokura kumabhanga makuru makuru. Nekune rumwe rutivi, kukurumidza kuomeswa kwegwaro remari kunongowedzera kusagadzikana kwemusika. Semaonero edu, mabhanga makuru epakati achaenderera mberi nekusimbisa mutemo wavo. Ngozi yekukwira kwe50bp neFed munaKurume yakadzikira, asi chiyero che25bp chinotaridzika chibvumirano chakaitwa.
Chii chatingatarisira chinotevera?
Mubvunzo wakakosha wemisika yepasi rose ikozvino ndewekuti: Ko kusawirirana kuchawedzera sei? Mhinduro kumubvunzo uyu ichave yakakosha mukudzikamisa misika. Kana yangopindurwa, kuverengwa kwezvakakonzera kukonana nezvirango kuchapfuura fungidziro. Zvadaro, zvichava pachena kuti yakawanda sei hupfumi hwenyika huchafanirwa kuenderana nehurongwa hutsva.
