Jiří Filip Press Release: Misika yezvemari yakadzora kosi mumavhiki apfuura, uye mushure menguva yakareba yekubuda ropa, makenduru egirinhi zvakare akatonga machati. Asi ichokwadi here kuguma kwemusika webheya kana kungoita kumwe kutendeuka kwenhema kunozoteverwa nekudonha kutsva? Muchikamu chino, tinopa maonero aŠtěpán Hájek, muongorori mukuru kuXTB, mugadziri wezvirongwa. Vhiki pamisika a Wall Street yakavhurika nezvimwe zvakawanda zvekuongorora uye zvekudzidzisa zvinhu.
Masheya ari kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma mazinga, asingatarisiri kudzikira. Fed iri kutanga kumutya.
Gore rapfuura yaive imwe yekufungidzira nezve chimiro chekudzika kwehupfumi hweAmerica. Pakutanga zvaiita sezvisingadzivisiki kuti kumhara zvakaoma uye kuwira mukuderera kwehupfumi kwaizova kusingadzivisiki. Mushure meizvozvo, vanoisa mari vakatanga kusendama uye kuvhurwazve kweChina uye zviri nani simba mamiriro muEurope, izvo zvakatanga kuita hunhu hwekumhara kwehupfumi. Izvi zvakakurumidza kureva kuongororwazve kwekuwedzera kwekukwira kwemitengo, iyo inofanira kusvika pedyo ne2% imwe nguva kutanga kwegore rinouya. Nekuti kana tiine nyoro yekumhara pamberi pedu, inflation haidonhe sedombo. Zvisinei, misika yacho inotungamirirwa nevanonyanya kutarisira. Izvi zvakatisiya tiine mukana wekutadza kumhara. Yakavakwa pamusoro pei?
Yakaoma, yakapfava uye isina kumhara
Panzvimbo pekudzikira chaiko kana kudzikira zvishoma kwehupfumi, kukura kunogona kuramba kwakasimba - kana kutosimuka zvakare - uye makambani anogona kuwana purofiti yaanofungidzira. Vatsigiri vemaonero aya vanotaura data ichangoburwa inoratidzira kuenderera mberi kwekukurumidza mukushandisa uye musika wakasimba wevashandi.
Avo vanobheja pakudzikira havasi kungobhejera pakudzikira
Apa ndipo panopinda maonero ega ega investor, ayo mune yangu akavakirwa pane data. Nhoroondo, hupfumi hwakatsiga hunogara huchiuya nekusimba kwekukwira kwemitengo. Iyo yakasimba hupfumi, musika wevashandi uye musika manzwiro anoperekedza zvinhu izvi, iyo inonyanya kudzora iyo Fed inofanirwa kuve uye kuchengetedza mitengo yakakwirira kwenguva refu. Izvi zvinopedzisira zvadzikamisa kukura kwehupfumi uye kuyera pamitengo yemasheya. Maminitsi emusangano wekupedzisira weFed akaratidza chimwe chinhu chinonakidza. Chokwadi, vemabhangi vakabvuma kuti vari kutanga kutya kudzikira, kunyangwe zvirevo zvakapfuura zvakadzorwa nepfungwa yekuti kuderera kwehupfumi kunogona kudziviswa. Iyo Fed iri kungotanga kuverenga pakuderera, iyo nenzira inokurumidza nzira yekusvika iyo 2% inflation chinangwa. Vanogona kuita izvi nemitengo yakatokwira.
Nekudaro, musika wemabhondi wakatendawo mukuderera kusvika kutanga kwaFebruary. Iwo anorehwa curve mitengo mitengo inodonha ne1% muhafu yechipiri yegore. Kudonha kwe1% hakusi kumhara kwakatsetseka. Nhasi, musika unototarisira kuderedzwa kweyero yemhando makumi maviri neshanu, zvichiratidza kuti yanzwisisa kutsunga kweFed kusadzokera kumashure painflation. Akanzwisisawo kuti inflation haizowira mumutsara wakatwasuka, iyo inogonawo kuonekwa mune mamwe mabheji ekutarisira inflation ayo ave achikwira kumusoro mumavhiki achangopfuura.
Chati: Inofananidzira US mubereko zvinotarisirwa curve (mabviro: Bloomberg, XTB)
Misika yemasheya haitarisire kuderera kwemari uye handina kuitarisira kunyangwe pakutanga kwegore. Isu takaona mabhenefiti mukufungidzira meme stocks, mapfupi mastock, kurasikirwa-kuita tech kana makambani emacyclical. Zvichakadaro, zvikamu zvine kukura kwakakura mupurofiti senge simba, hutano hwehutano kana zvekushandisa zvakaramba zviri kumashure. Mastock atanga kudzoreredza goho remabond arikukwira uye netarisiro yemitengo muzvikamu zvazvino, asi zvichiri kukwira zvine njodzi. Izvi zvinovaratidza kuti vawedzere kuderera, izvo zvinotsigirwa nemasimba ezvakakosha uye zvehunyanzvi zvinhu.
Unoda okisijeni yakawanda panzvimbo dzine ngozi
Iyo S&P 500 yakakwira kumashure pamusoro pegumi nemasere mushure mekunge P / E yadonha kusvika gumi neshanu mukudonha, nepo premium yengozi yakadonha zvakanyanya. Uku kusanganiswa kwehunyanzvi kunoratidza kuti zviri nani kutora machipisi patafura uye kugovera capital kune inodzivirira zvinhu. Izvo hazvisi kuitika panguva ino, uye yakasununguka mamiriro emari, dhora risina simba uye mari iri nani yave yakakwana kuchengetedza njodzi-pamanzwiro. Hapana kumhara kamwe kamwe mamiriro ekutanga. Nekudaro, hupfumi hwatanga kudonha zvakare mumazuva achangopfuura, misika ichiri yakakwira zvine njodzi uye muganho wekuchengetedza wadonha zvakanyanya. Mabhuru haana kuchengetedzeka sezvaanofunga. Zvinoshamisa ndezvokuti, izvi zvinokonzerwa nehuwandu hwehupfumi huri kuwedzera huri nani, huri kushandura mamiriro ezvinhu kunyanya pamabhondi, uko goho riri kuwedzera. Mihoro uye masheya haina 15% yakabatana, asi vatengesi vezvisungo vanowanzo chenjera, uye kana masheya aratidza kudzikira kwavo, anofanira kuratidza kukwira kwavo.
Chati: Equity njodzi premium (mabviro: Morgan Stanley)
Iwe unofanirwa kunzwisisa kuti haufanirwe kufungidzira nezvekuderera kwemari kana iwe uchifungidzira pamisika inodonha. Kukura kweGDP pamusoro pezvikamu gumi zvekupedzisira kwapfura kubva kune yakajairwa kuvonga kune hofori yekukurudzira, uye kunyangwe pakange pasina kudzikira, kudzoka kwekukura kwekukura kune yekutanga kukosha kunoisa kudzvanya kwakaringana pamaganho uye purofiti. Margins achamanikidzwawo nekudzikira zvishoma nezvishoma kwesimba remitengo, sezvo vatengi vasingachagamuchiri mitengo yakakwira. Misika inotarisira kuderera kwepurofiti, asi kushamisika kuchava kudzika kwayo. Pachine nzvimbo yekushamisika kumativi ese ari maviri, asi izvo zvekutanga zvekutenga masheya zviri kure nekupera. Liquidity uye mamiriro emari ari nani anogona kutibatsira kukunda gaka iri (izvi zvakaitika pakutanga kwegore), asi isu tiri kutarisa zvakapesana.
Mamiriro emusika ari kuchinja nekukurumidza. Kutanga kwegore kwakatanga nekufara kwakawanda, uye kamwe kamwe mireza mitsvuku yakawanda yakatanga kuzunguza. Tarisiro icharamba iripo chero bedzi misika ichichengetedza kukosha kweumbozha. Pavanongowedzera kukoshesa mitengo yakakwira, kudzikira kuchauya uye nekushanduka kwemanzwiro, kubheti kwepasi kunotanga kuunganidza uye capital inotanga kubva kune ine njodzi ichienda kune inodzivirira zvinhu. Izvi zvinogona kuvhurira nzvimbo yeS&P 500 yekuyedza kudzikira kwegore rapfuura - vanoisa mari vanodzokera kune yakaoma kumhara, inova nguva yaunoda kutenga masheya uye kwete kumirira kudzikira nekuti ichave yanyanya kunonoka kutenga.
