Apple picker Pakupera kwaFebruary, Russian Federation yakatanga hondo nekurwisa Ukraine. Kunyange zvazvo hurumende yeRussia haisati yakwanisa kupemberera kubudirira kwayo, pane zvinopesana, yakakwanisa kubatanidza inenge nyika yose, iyo yakashora zvisina kujeka kupinda kwezvino. Zvakadai, nyika dzekuMadokero dzakauya nezvirango zvine mutsindo zvekukanganisa hupfumi hwadzo. Asi mugariro wacho ucharamba uchikura sei? Mukuru anoremekedzwa wekudyara kweboka reFrance Amundi, Vincent Mortier, akataura pamusoro peizvi, maererano neizvo zvese zvichave nemhedzisiro yacho. Akanyatsotaura fungidziro idzi.
Mhinduro mukati memavhiki kana mwedzi
Nzira inogamuchirwa yekubuda mudambudziko raPutin (rangarira Cuba muna 1962?) - Hurukuro dzakabudirira pakati peUkraine neRussia uye / kana kumiswa kwezvirango.
Migumisiro yehupfumi
- Mabhanga eCentral achadzokera kune yavo yenguva dzose rhetoric, kukura kunononoka muEurope uye kune njodzi yekuderera (zvichipiwa nyaya dzazvino uye kukanganisa muyero yeECB yekukwira uye kutapira mutemo)
- Vanotengesera kunze kwenyika kubva kuUS neLATAM nyika neChina ndiwo achave makirasi akasarudzika emidziyo
Misika yemari
- Dziviriro uye cyber kudzivirira masheya ari kuwedzera
- Magove emakambani eIT anogonawo kubatsirwa kubva mudambudziko
- Mitengo yemagetsi inoramba yakakwira kudzamara pave nekusiyana-siyana kwevashambadziri (nyaya yemakore akati wandei)
Russia ichakunda: kuguma kwehurumende yeZelensky, hurumende itsva
Migumisiro yehupfumi
- Ukraine ichavhura musuwo weRussia kuti ienderere mberi muEurope, kunyanya kumatunhu eBaltic nePoland
- Hondo yevagari muRussia/Ukraine nekurasikirwa kwakanyanya kwehupenyu
- Russia Inoedza NATO neCyber Attacks kana Kudzorera, NATO Inopindura, Russia Inoyambuka Red Line
- China ichada kuratidza chinzvimbo chayo muhurongwa hwenyika hutsva
-> Kumwe kusawirirana kungamuka
Misika yemari
- High simba mitengo
- Kusagadzikana kwemusika (misika ichaita kune chokwadi chekuti Russia inogona kuyambuka mutsara mutsvuku unotevera) - kuderedzwa kwemari senjodzi chaiyo (Europe)
- Kutsvaga mari yakachengeteka, kutengesa zviwanikwa zvemvura (equity uye zvikwereti)
- Kuderera kwe euro
Hondo yevagari vemo, kukomba kweKiev, nhamba huru yerufu (yakafanana neChechnya)
Migumisiro yehupfumi
- Kuuraya muKiev nemamwe maguta; nhamba yepamusoro yevakabatwa haigamuchirwi kune vagari veRussia
- Izvi zvingangoreva kutarisana kwakananga nezvombo neWest (asi kwete kukwira kwenyukireya)
Misika yemari
- Stock market capitulation uye kutya kutengesa
Russia icharasikirwa: hutongi hwaPutin hunotyisidzirwa nekupikisa kwakasimba
- kuwedzera kudzvinyirira kwehudzvanyiriri mudzimba, kuchave nekusagadzikana kwevanhu kana hondo yevagari muRussia
Migumisiro yehupfumi
- Russia ichapinda mukuderera kwehupfumi uye dambudziko remari riine kushomeka kwepasirese kana Russia nyowani ikava "Western satellite"
Misika yemari
- Kutengeswa mumisika, iyo inonzi nyika yakaparadzana, inogona kunyora zvinhu zveAmerica neAsia, zvichida kunyange zveEurope, kana pasina kuderera kwakadzika.
Nuclear De-scalation Inotsigirwa neChina: Rapid War Maneuvers
- EU/US shandisa zvirango zvitsva, kuratidzira kwechisimba nenzira yakabudirira. China ichatsigira Madokero mukuramba mhirizhonga.
- Russia ichamisa zviito zvehondo. Hupfumi hwakaoma, hurongwa hwezvematongerwo enyika hucharamba huripo.
Migumisiro yehupfumi
- Kunonoka kwezvinhu zvekushandisa (mafuta, gasi, nickel, aluminium, palladium, titanium, iron ore) zvinokonzeresa kukanganisa kwebhizinesi uye kunonoka.
- Kukurudzira kukura kwehupfumi hwenyika
- Russia ichapinda muhurongwa hwezvemari uye kuderera kwehupfumi (kudzika kunoenderana nehurefu hwehondo)
- Kuedza kwemari uye kwemari kuchave kwakashinga. ECB inodzokera kure kubva kune yakajairika
- Dambudziko revapoteri muEurope
- Dzidziso itsva yemauto eEurope
Misika yemari
- Dzvinyiriro pamusika wemagetsi inoramba iripo
- Misika yezvemari mumvura isina kunyorwa (nekuda kwekutyisidzira systemic mumisika yeRussia)
- Tizira kune Hunhu (Nzvimbo Dzakachengeteka)
- Kubviswa kwemamwe mabhangi eRussia kubva kuSWIFT kuchatsigira kushandiswa kwemamwe nzira, senge cryptocurrencies (Etherum nevamwe)
Mhedzisiro yekukonana inotora nguva yakareba
Zviito zvechiuto zvakamira, Ukraine inoramba, Russia inogumbura inodhonza kwemwedzi.
Kurwa kwenguva refu asi kunetsana kwakanyanya
Migumisiro yehupfumi
- Vanhuwo zvavo nevechiuto vakuvadzwa
- Kuvhiringwa kwemaketani epasi rose
- Kuwedzera kusagutsikana kwevanhu muRussia
- Kuwedzera zvirango kuRussia
- Kuwedzera kweNATO, pamwe nekupinda kungangoitika kwenyika dzeNordic, hakuzotungamira kune yakanangana hondo.
- Stagflation muEurope
- Iyo ECB icharasikirwa nekuzvimirira kwayo. Ichamanikidzwa kufunga zvakare kutenga kwayo asset (kutsigira dziviriro uye simba rekuchinja mari) zvakananga kana zvisina kunanga.
Misika yemari
Kurwisa pasi rose stagflation: Central mabhanga anodzokera kumberi nekukakavadzana kufamba pamagumo ekupedzisira kwegoho uye mamiriro emari epasi rose.
- Kurwisana nepasirese stagflation: Central mabhanga anodzokera kune gakava pakupera kwenguva refu kwegoho curve uye mamiriro emari epasi rose.
- Mareti chaiwo acharamba ari munharaunda isina kunaka: mushure mekugadziriswa, vanoisa mari vanozotarisa kune equities, zvikwereti uye kutsvaga masosi ekutenda kwechokwadi mumisika Emerging (EM)
- Tsvaga midziyo yakachengeteka yemvura (mari, simbi dzinokosha, nezvimwewo)
Kurwisana kwenguva refu, kwakasimba kwemauto: ngatitarisirei zvakaipisisa
- Kugona kushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya
- Global systemic threat, global stagflation, kuparara kwemisika yemari iyo icharamba yakanyanyisa
Nguva yehondo inogona kururamisa kudzvinyirirwa kwemari kwakasimba. Mbereko chaiyo icharamba yakadzama mukuipa kwakadzika.
Kukurukurirana kwechinyorwa
Hurukuro haina kuvhurwa pachinyorwa chino.
